Southwest Flights Signal...Less Police?, "Accidential War" in Taiwan," Shipping goes full 18th Century, Navy Engineer Goes Full Traitor (The Five for 10/12/21)
Hey, welcome to The Five.
Before we dive in…a minor (but important) piece of info about how The Five is delivered.
We’re coming up on two years of this bi-weekly production, and a lot of new folks are finding (and subscribing, and reading, thankfully).
The Five is a free “subscriber fueled” news outlet, meaning that I’ll never charge for content, but the newsletter has grown thanks to readers who believe in it enough to contribute monthly (most people who support kick in around $5/month), which is used to run ads to reach new readers.
One thing that’s becoming apparent in these ads is that…The Five just doesn’t work very well on Facebook. I don’t know why, but Facebook users just engage less.
On Twitter, however, The Five is exploding.
For this reason, I’m planning to move publication over to Twitter’s new Revue platform (a Substack competitor).
Here’s what that means for you.
There’s a chance Gmail could kick the newsletter to the “promotions” tab for a bit due to this change…so check your tabs on Tuesdays and Fridays if you’re not seeing it.
If you support monthly, I’ll need to cancel your account on Substack, and you can sign back up over on Revue (thank you!)
If you read The Five online (rather than in your email), you’ll need to read it at sethtowerhurd.getrevue.co (not live yet).
I’m not 100% sure I’m switching platforms…but this does seem like the best move to helping this content get to new readers.
I’ll keep you posted.
[one]
Right now, everybody is paying attention to the Southwest Airlines “shortage,” and precious few are looking at what’s coming next (very soon).
If you’re just coming back on the grid after a three-day weekend (Columbus Day was yesterday), Southwest canceled 1,900 flights in one day (30% of the airlines flights that day), blaming air traffic control, weather and “military training.”
However, other airlines didn’t experience similar cancellations. Southwest has been more aggressive with the coming vaccine mandates, and it certainly appears that, while a “strike” isn’t official…many Southwest pilots are calling in sick and/or simply refusing to work.
Air travel may be essential, but it’s not one of THE most essential needs for day-to-day life.
Which is why it’s concerning that areas of the country may experience even deeper cuts to police, fire and healthcare workers (and services).
Seattle’s already depleted police department is bracing for another setback.
The city is poised to fire as many as 403 officers, about 40 percent of the 1,000-person force, for failing to take the COVID-19 jab by an Oct. 18 deadline, according to local reports.
“The environment has been pretty toxic and negative,” an unnamed officer told Fox 13 News. “Not just from this whole mandate, but prior to that as well. I’m not sure this would be a good place for me to work long-term for my mental health. It has been very stressful.”
A total of 292 officers had yet to provide proof of COVID vaccination as of Oct. 6, the station reports. In addition, 111 officers are awaiting the results of exemption requests, said Seattle PD spokesperson Sgt. Randy Huserik.
The Seattle Police Department has already lost more than 300 officers since Black Lives Matters riots and the “defund the police” movement roiled the city in 2020, putting officers in the crosshairs of political and public ire.
At this point, we might as well dub 2021 “the year of unintended consequences.” The Biden Administration, no doubt, believed a corporate vaccine mandate would increase the vaccination rate of the population.
If that’s happening…those numbers are difficult to track (there’s no survey on why you’re getting vaccinated when you do get the shot).
However, the unintended consequences of the mandate are much easier to measure.
Lack of flights disrupt business and essential personal travel. My dad is on an early morning flight to Houston at the time of this writing for critical back surgery that he was quickly called down for. Due to the Southwest shortages, it wasn’t certain he could get to Texas at all by Thursday (his surgery date).
But air travel is nothing compared to losing police and healthcare services. This weekend, people wanted to fly, but there weren’t enough pilots, likely due to the vaccine mandates.
What happens when people are being victimized by increased violent crime? Or need surgery…and there just not enough cops, doctors and nurses to accomplish the tasks we need to (quite literally) stay alive?
The Seattle vaccine deadline is next Monday. So, unless the situation changes drastically (and fast), we’re about to see how society functions in the absence of unvaccinated essential workers.
One final note. The public rhetoric around this issue is….concerning.
I don’t know anyone who’s changed their mind on a medical procedure due to being called a “domestic terrorist.”
Back to the law of unintended consequences, this Blue-Check-behavior won’t increase vaccination rates, but it may fuel the fire for “unofficial strikes.”
Which will, in turn, negatively effect every day Americans…like my dad, who nearly missed a critical back surgery due to flight shortages.
[two]
Fighter pilots in Taiwan (Republic of China)
Military tensions around Taiwan (the island of officially the “Republic of China”) are dominating the news cycle at the moment, due to the country we call China (officially the People’s Republic of China) are escalating.
Although I’ve followed current events my whole life, I didn’t realize until researching for this story that Taiwan (ROC) claims to be the “true China” and the representative of China, with Communist, mainline China (PRC) being in “rebellion,” essentially. Conversely, the PRC sees the ROC as a “rogue state” they mean to bring under Communist control sooner or later.
The Republic of China has a population of only 23 million people, living on an island that’s slightly geographically larger than Maryland. The PRC has 1.4 billion people. The situation has remained in a stalemate for decades thanks to the U.S. backing the ROC militarily.
However, the fall of Afghanistan seems to have emboldened the PRC to make aggressive moves towards the ROC, flying jets into the airspace around the island of Taiwan and conducting beach landing/invasion drills just across the sea from Taiwan.
However, it’s not likely that you wake up tomorrow to Red Dawn: Taiwan Edition. Tensions may be escalating, but full scale war isn’t imminent…yet.
But open conflict could arrive…by accident, if both parties aren’t very, very careful.
China’s increasingly aggressive behavior makes a cross-strait emergency more likely. But the risk of a crisis stems less from the possibility of an immediate Chinese invasion than from an accident or a miscalculation that turns deadly—a midair collision between Chinese and Taiwanese jets, for instance, or a Chinese decision to violate Taiwan’s sovereign airspace that prompts Taiwan to shoot down the plane. Beijing will probably continue to escalate its coercive efforts, sending aircraft closer to Taiwan and possibly even over the island itself. At a certain point, Taipei will be forced to respond—whether with enhanced surveillance and warnings or with military force. The United States must therefore work with Taiwan to preempt and respond to China’s military activities without triggering a crisis. Preparing for a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan is no longer a sufficient U.S. strategy. Washington must also prepare for a blunder or a miscue that has the potential to explode into open conflict.
The isolationist stance on this is likely somewhere in the camp of “we just got out of Afghanistan, we can’t afford another foreign war right now, the country is already broke.”
That is…correct.
However, this situation is more complicated, as the Republic of China makes more than half of the world’s supply of semiconductors (computer chips).
In the 2000’s, discussion abounded as to whether the U.S. had gone to war with Iraq over oil…but oil can be pumped from Texas, Canada, Alaska, Venezuala…lots of places on this half of the globe. We can’t just pump semiconductors out of the ground.
If the U.S. lost access to over half the world’s supply of computer chips…the effects could be even more devastating than an extended oil shortage.
(Grapic via CNBC)
[three]
With more than 100 cargo ships backed up on the coast of California, unable to unload, some retailers are…chartering their own ships, a practice that hasn’t been common in international trade in my lifetime.
Major companies are scrambling to find ways to overcome historic shipping delays. For Home Depot, an idea that started as a sort of joke has helped the company meet consumer demand.
Sarah Galica, the chain's vice president of transportation, told The Wall Street Journal that executives were in May looking for new ways to bring goods in faster when the idea to charter private ships was tossed out.
"It was almost started I think as a joke," Galica said. "Let's just charter a ship."
By June, Home Depot was not only chartering its own ships but also flying in items like power tools and snatching up goods on the spot market - a buying option that can cost as much as four times pre-established contract rates.
While the chartered ships only make up a small portion of Home Depot's imported goods, Galica told the Journal the practice has helped the company prioritize goods and keep in-demand products in stock. The chartered ships help move plumbing supplies, power tools, holiday decorations, and heaters, as well as several other items, according to Galica.
Home Depot is one of many major retailers to turn toward chartering ships. Walmart, Costco, Target, and Ikea have also taken up the practice. More recently, Coca-Cola revealed it has begun chartering bulk containers that are usually reserved for hauling raw materials like coal, iron, and grain.
[four]
In related news…if you’ve noticed store shelves looking…quite bare as of late…welcome to “the new normal” according to CNN:
If you hoped grocery stores this fall and winter would look like they did in the Before Times, with limitless options stretching out before you in the snack, drink, candy and frozen foods aisles, get ready for some disappointing news.
Many of the country's biggest food makers are telling grocers that they will have limited quantities of a number of their products, including items such as Rice Krispies Treats, Sour Patch Kids, some Ben & Jerry's ice cream flavors, McCormick gourmet spices and Marie Callender's pot pies because of labor, commodity and transportation constraints throttling supply chains, according to emails viewed by CNN and interviews with grocers. Some suppliers are also telling grocers to cancel their promotions of these items and more over the holidays so products won't disappear from store shelves as quickly.
While the shortages are notably increased, the statistical jump in out of stock products is concerning, but not currently at “emergency” levels:
Around 18% of beverages, 15% of frozen foods, 16% of snacks, 15% of candy and 18% of bakery items were out of stock at stores during the week ending on October 3, according to the latest data from IRI, which tracks in-stock levels at leading US grocery chains, big box stores, pharmacies and wholesale clubs.
Before the pandemic, 7% to 10% of products were typically out of stock on shelves, according to IRI.
When supply is tight, manufacturers often eliminate some of their fringe items to focus on ramping up production of top-selling products, said Krishnakumar Davey, president of IRI's strategic analytics practice. They also tend to cut products that are more expensive to make, according to Davey.
It’s likely that fixing shipping and import issues (see story #3) can ease the shortages somewhat…but this isn’t just an issue of the stuff in stores not arriving in time…this is a case of the stuff in stores not being made fast enough, as many manufacturers haven’t returned to pre-COVID productivity.
If this is “the new normal,” I’d suggest taking stock of what you need on a day-to-day basis and keeping a more robust pantry/backup system of everyday goods.
[five]
A Navy engineer is facing charges for allegedly trying to sell submarine secrets to a foreign government.
Federal prosecutors asked Monday that a Navy engineer remain locked up as they press forward with charges that he tried to sell submarine secrets to a foreign country.
The detention memo for Jonathan Toebbe was filed ahead of an expected appearance in federal court in West Virginia on Tuesday. The Justice Department submitted an identical motion for Toebbe’s wife, Diana, who was also arrested Saturday.
Prosecutors seek detention in Navy submarine espionage case (apnews.com)
According to the documents, Toebbe reached out in April 2020 to the foreign country to offer information about the submarines and to provide instructions for how to maintain a furtive dialogue. But the package he sent was obtained eight months later by the FBI, which initiated contact with Toebbe through an undercover agent who agreed to pay tens of thousands of dollars in cryptocurrency in exchange for the government secrets.
Hopefully, this is a one-off incident.
Anecdotally, I’m hearing more stories of people in my network deciding to leave the military, as the experience in the armed forces has mirrored society in general—less stable, more turbulent.
One of the consequences of a disenfranchised military service is that a very small minority of the most unstable or deranged individuals may try to betray the nation out of rage or ideological differences (likely both).
Until the next one,
-sth