Harvard Confirms COVID Change Since March '20, Chinese Censorship of American Movies, Johanson vs. Disney Could Kill (Some) Streaming Outletss? Too Late for Basic Cable? (The Five for 08/06/21)
Hey, welcome to The Five.
It’s Friday, so this issue focuses on Culture & Commentary.
Let’s get into it.
[one]
Despite a flurry of alarming COVID headlines, deaths from the novel coronavirus are at the lowest since the first lockdown in March 2020.
The Foundation for Economic Education reports:
If you judged the US’s current COVID-19 situation only by the headlines, you’d come away thinking that we’re spiraling back into pandemic disaster. Localities like Los Angeles County and St. Louis have reimposed mask mandates on their citizens, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention just revised its “guidance” to say that, actually, fully vaccinated individuals should still wear masks in certain situations. Meanwhile, mainstream media coverage of the rise of the “Delta variant” is soaked in alarmism.
Yet at the same time that all this alarm is mounting, the actual number of COVID-19 deaths is at a nadir. Harvard Medical School Professor Martin Kulldorff pointed this out on Twitter, writing that “In [the] USA, COVID mortality is now the lowest since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.”
Now, some would cite rising COVID-19 case counts or hospitalizations in certain parts of the country as evidence that the pandemic is indeed once again spiraling out of control. But many COVID-19 cases recorded as positive are either asymptomatic or come with very mild symptoms—especially the cases confirmed among vaccinated individuals—so high case counts are not necessarily proof of a serious problem. Hospitalizations are concerning, yes, but primarily insofar as they lead to high numbers of deaths, which, thankfully, is not the case so far with the Delta variant.
Others would say that deaths are a “lagging indicator” that come in several weeks after the increased spread of the disease. But the Delta variant has been spreading in the US for months now, and deaths have remained relatively flat, in part due to widespread vaccination.
Since this is a Culture & Commentary edition of The Five…it’s worth asking the question of how much “safety” is worth missing out on the fullness of a regular life for?
Certainly, there’s a justified case for vulnerable populations to continue to shelter in place during the Delta variant spread, but I believe it’s worth asking the question as to what those in their 20’s and 30’s are giving up by living the lives of geriatric shut-ins while being young, healthy and vaccinated?
On one hand, I don’t encourage you to seek out death in order to cheat it. There’s pretty solid psychological evidence that daredevil syndrome is a disorder from unaddressed trauma.
On the other…many of my most significant experiences have been significant because I’ve embraced a level of risk.
This summer, I spent a day solo kayaking (didn’t tell my wife until after so she didn’t worry—also, I have good life insurance). Could I have drowned? Sure. But I had a life jacket, which mitigated the risk to a certain point, and I’m highly experienced at handling personal watercraft and a near expert-level swimmer with 17 triathlons under my belt.
That day, alone on the water, was a time to rejuvenate and refocus.
This fall, we’re joining another family for a three day trip off-roading in SUV’s on logging trails in the Southwest, completely cut off from civilization, except for an emergency signaling device…carrying all fuel, food, water and medical supplies we’re going to need.
Later in the year, I’m going to head into one million acres of wilderness on a mountain bike for a solo deer hunt, where there’s at least a miniscule chance I’ll get shot by another hunter or attacked by a bear (cause Missouri re-introduced them in the state, and the population is growing).
I mitigate these risks with safety precautions, woodsmanship and a knowledge of first aid.
And if I didn’t take those risks? A friend from elementary school, who’s healthy, just had a heart attack at 40. I lost a cousin when he reached down to pick up a CD he dropped on the floor of his car and flipped the vehicle. A former co-worker was killed in a mass shooting at a mall in Nebraska in 2005.
Sooner or later, everyone's ticket gets punched.
What to do between now and then is a constant internal negotiation on what risks are too great vs. what parts of life will be lost by skipping out on (some) risks.
But the only way to eliminate risk is to be dead.
I’m not telling you to leave the house, or not. Or to wear a mask, or not.
And I’m certainly not telling you to venture alone into the wilderness, like I do…unless you have both passion and preparation.
But I do implore you…count the cost, and don’t assume that a life lived in isolation is one without risk. There are still plenty of things that could do you in.
[two]
The news of the Scarlet Johanson vs. Disney lawsuit broke last week, and I didn’t think it was worth covering.
However, this standoff between the House of Mouse and one of the biggest MCU stars may be the most important story in entertainment since Harvey Weinstein’s arrest kicked off the #MeToo movement.
Movie stars like Johansson often have bonuses in their contracts tied to milestones of box-office performance. The bigger a blockbuster is, the more they get paid. And for decades, theatrical release has been the main way that franchise films make money, so it's made sense for talent to share in a film's success that way. But in the streaming age, the value of a movie on Disney Plus is different. More than just the amount of money it racks up in Premier Access fees, having Black Widow on Disney Plus generates value by attracting new subscribers, by helping keep the subscribers the service already has and by enhancing the service's pricing power for subscription-cost hikes down the line.
But Johansson's contract, like almost everyone's in Hollywood, isn't set up to compensate her for these new types of value created by streaming success.
Disney isn't alone in rankling its talent with these new release models. But other studios have smoothed over these tensions differently so far. Warner Bros., for example, reportedly paid $200 million to its talent whose films were being released same-day on HBO Max, basically paying them as though their movies were box-office successes no matter how they actually fared in theaters. +
So, Warner Brothers forked over money to the movie talent as if the films that went straight to streaming, while Disney intentionally cut Johanson’s wages as much as possible.
This also looks worse for Disney, as their movies go back to a theater-only release schedule this month (August) and Black Widow released to premium streaming less than 30 days ago.
All this matters for three reasons:
There will almost certainly be a writer/talent union strike in Hollywood next time contracts are up, which will shut down film and TV production over this.
If streaming services are forced to pay talent the same way they’re compensated for multiplex releases, Netflix et. al. will release less (and worse) original content.
Black Widow leaked to piracy sites within minutes of going up on Disney+ on release day, due to a pristine digital copy being available online. When I was a film critic, I had to watch pre-screen streaming movies (which were scheduled to hit theaters) with a watermark on the screen that quite literally said my name (Seth Hurd) in the corner…so if that copy leaked, the studio could sue me. This was a huge hassle…and one that could be coming to premium-video-on-demand movies for all consumers depending on how this Black Widow lawsuit shakes out.
[three]
Oscar winning director Chloe Zhao, fourth from the left, with the Eternals cast.
As a sequel to the above story, there’s no doubt that Johanson’s earnings for Black Widow were harmed by the film being denied a box office release in China.
This is due in large part, not to the movie Black Widow itself, but to Disney hiring the Chinese-born Chloe Zhao fresh off her Oscar for 2020’s Nomadland. Zhao will take the reins of Eternals, which features Selma Hayak (Desperado, Frida), Angelina Jolie (Girl Interrupted, Malificent) as well as the reunion of Kit Harrington and Richard Madden, who previously played half brothers in Game of Thrones.
It seemed like a big get for Disney to break further into the Chinese box office via a Chinese born director on such a huge project, until these comments from Zhao resurfaced from 2013:
It goes back to when I was a teenager in China, being in a place where there are lies everywhere. You felt like you were never going to be able to get out. A lot of info I received when I was younger was not true, and I became very rebellious toward my family and my background. I went to England suddenly and relearned my history. Studying political science in a liberal arts college was a way for me to figure out what is real. Arm yourself with information, and then challenge that too.
Since hiring Zhao, Disney hasn’t been able to get a movie approved for a theatrical release in China. The House of Mouse also can’t go back and remove her from the project, as filming is already complete, so the Disney v. China rift may be irreparable.
This may not be a bad thing, as a cooling relationship between Disney and China could reverse the trend of Hollywood changing the content of movies to appease Communist censors.
From The Week:
In a report last year, "Made in Hollywood, Censored by Beijing," the free-speech organization PEN America accused industry decision-makers of changing "the content, casting, plot, dialogue, and settings" of films "to avoid antagonizing Chinese officials." At first, studios only tweaked their Chinese releases — for example, when censors ordered that dirty laundry be removed from Shanghai balconies in Mission: Impossible 3. But soon studios began removing potential sore points from their U.S. releases. The 2012 remake of Red Dawn originally depicted a Chinese invading army, but so as not to offend Beijing, they were digitally altered to become North Korean troops in both the U.S. and Chinese releases. China's government allows only 34 foreign films to be released each year, and studios competing for those valuable slots fear being denied access to 1.4 billion people — the world's largest box-office market. "Over time, writers and creators don't even conceive of ideas, stories, or characters that would flout the rules, because there is no point in doing so," the PEN report said.
China’s homegrown film/TV market is also taking off, so the Chinese Communist Party may be taking the opportunity to shut off foreign competition for ticket sales and Western influences over their people.
As a footnote to this story, I wrote about Communist censorship of Hollywood blockbuster back in 2017, which you can read about here if you like.
[four]
MTV turned 40 this year (in human years, which is 24,000 in pop culture years).
Variety has an interesting idea on what to do with an “aging” youth brand in an era where Gen Z’s screen time is spent on YouTube and Tiktok…become a Gen X brand once again.
But that brings us back to linear MTV. What to do with a legacy linear brand on autopilot? For its 40th anniversary, I say: Give MTV back to the 40-year-olds.
MTV is a brand that has always adapted to the times. And even now, that means a new MTV for the streaming generation. That’s fine. But young viewers don’t watch linear TV anymore. Hence the decision to program mostly “Ridiculousness” repeats on the channel as a bit of a nightlight. But are we really going to let MTV as a channel fade away, with a whimper like that?
Ironically, in 2021 MTV has once again morphed its brand toward the Gen X crowd (who’s watching those docs and “The Real World: Homecoming”) and millennials (“Emily in Paris”) than Gen Z, who aren’t… watching TV at all.
That’s why I’d say, ViacomCBS would have nothing to lose at this point in making MTV back into a lifestyle channel for the original MTV Generation. A generation that, yes, still subscribes to cable. And who still fondly remembers watching wall-to-wall Live Aid coverage on MTV. Jamming to acoustic Nirvana on “MTV Unplugged.” Playing along to the pop-culture trivia on “Remote Control.” Giggling to “Just Say Julie” Brown and “Beavis & Butt-head.” Watching Vanilla Ice on “The Week in Rock” trying to justify that sample he swiped from Queen and David Bowie. Getting schooled in hip-hop 101 on “Yo! MTV Raps.” And watching the most popular videos on “Dial MTV” and, later, “TRL.”
MTV as a music destination still exists: There are three MTV music video channels on Pluto TV. And the little-watched MTV Classic, available on cable and satellite providers including DirecTV, offers up a steady diet of old music videos. But there’s no personality or life to those channels, which are also run on autopilot. Take some of those elements, add in library fare and tease out some of the MTV exclusive content found on Paramount Plus, and you’ve got at least a channel that serves as a sales tool for why the brand still means something to multiple generations.
MTV is already embracing its roots, via all of those reboots being produced for Paramount Plus. Why not use linear MTV to promote that fact, and serve as a bit of a barker channel for those revivals, while also still making it a destination for the MTV Generation? Heading into middle age is tough enough. MTV, let’s do it together.
I would expand this question of what to do with MTV to one that’s going to hit all basic cable channels.
When cable TV controlled the distribution, it was the brand (or network) that mattered most. Each day, individual content creators gain more power, and institutionalized brands slip a little more.
Rather than become a “house of brands” for notable content creators (the way Substack has done by paying a premium to lure high profile writers from away from The New York Times, Atlantic, etc), basic cable is functions on 20th century business principals in a world of endless choices for our attention.
Some time soon, we’ll either see these channels update or get kicked into the dust bin of pop culture history.
(Hat tip: Craig of Second Drafts for this story)
[five]
As always, let’s head into the weekend with a pop culture roundup:
At the time of this writing, the James Gunn (Guardians of the Galaxy) directed The Suicide Squad is sitting at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. The score can vary hour to hour as new reviews are added, but it’s safe to say the kinda-sorta-sequel about expendable comic book baddies forced into combat is almost certainly the highest reviewed blockbuster of 2021.
Also noteworthy from the average critics score is the Masters of the Universe: Revelation is one of the best reviewed shows of the year (also 96% on Rotten Tomatoes). Helmed by 90’s indie darling Kevin Smith (directing credits for Chasing Amy, Mall Rats) and features voice acting from Mark Hammil (Star Wars IV-VI), Game of Thrones alums Lena Headey and Lian Cunningham and Steven Root (Get Out, No Country for Old Men). Probably not my thing, but worth noting as a surprise breakout hit of the year.
We’re just over a year out from Amazon’s Lord of the Rings TV show, which will be set in the mythology thousands of years before the Hobbit/LOTR J.R.R. Tolkien books that were turned into blockbuster films in the early 00’s. (Sorry, Lord of the Rings was, The Hobbit moves were a massive flop). Season 1, which reportedly cost $465 million will debut September 2nd, 2022 and follow a weekly release schedule. No plot details yet, but the studio did release this image to the public.
Writer/director Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water, Sons of Anarchy) surprised the world by making a surprise hit with Yellowstone, a family drama set on a modern Montana ranch that’s topped off with healthy doses of of violence and the tension of local politics. Now, country stars (and real life couple) Tim McGraw and Faith Hill, along with legendary western actor Sam Elliot, have been announced as the lead cast of Yellowstone 1883, which will follow the ancestors of the Dutton family as they make their way from Texas to Montana to seek out new land for cattle ranching.
South Park will remain on the air through 2027, marking 30 seasons for the boundary-pushing cartoon comedy. The new deal with creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone also includes 14 straight-to-streaming movies exclusively on Paramount+. To put this into perspective, the show is older than the iPod, the war on terror, Google, every social networking site and YouTube. Oddly enough, South Park is the same age as Netflix, which launched as a DVD-by-mail service. Both debuted in 1997.
MUSIC NEWS: Taylor Swift, who has several amazing albums and also two terrible ones, announced the re-release of Red, which is far and away her best project, although hardcore fans (like me) will have to wait until November to hear it Fans think Phoebe Bridgers, Chris Stapleton and Ed Sheeran will contribute new vocals to the project, based on clues Taylor has dropped online. Kanye West, who’s notorious for not launching announced projects on time, held a second listening event at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta for his new album, which included the rapper/fashion designer/very strange person hanging hundreds of feet in the air from wires. As of 6am this morning, Kanye’s new album had still not been released. ||| High-snobbery music zine Pitchfork reviewed the 1990’s bestselling CCM project Jesus Freak by DC Talk, for some reason, this week, which is worth a read. ||| NEEDTOBREATHE, a band I frequently interviewed and championed during the early 00’s, will are set to release a documentary this fall, chronicling their rise to a 3x platinum act and recording an album during the COVID shutdown. First trailer here.
MY PICKS: John Mark McMillan feat. Sleeping at Last “Hammering Hearts” (dream pop heaven) Nas feat. Lauryn Hill “Nobody” (golden era hip hop in 2021), Underoath “Hallelujah” (vintage melodic screamo with a heck of a strong chorus), Jon Keith feat. Mogli the Iceberg “24K” (I dunno, Gen-Z-ish). Creeper “Midnight” (incredible male/female lead vocal tradeoffs with a touch of Queen mixed in).
NEW MUSIC: Long-running, STL based alt-country outfit Son Volt releases Electro Melodier. Brit-punk crew Creeper are hoping to break big stateside with American Noir, which blends the theatrics of My Chemical Romance with strong AFI vibes. Hip hop lifer Nas continues his legacy with King’s Disease II. Indie rapper Jon Keith’s Summertime in the VLLG is pretty great at first listen.
[epilogue]
Current UFC heavyweight may have the most powerful punch in the history of combat sports. After the Cameroonian immigrant’s striking force was measured by a computer, UFC President Dana White shared this statement:
“Francis Ngannou has the world record for the most powerful punch. His punch is the equivalent to 96 horsepower, which is equal to getting hit by a Ford Escort going as fast as it can! It’s more powerful than a 12 pound sledgehammer swung full force from overhead. Holy s***.”
Ngannou credits this nearly unbelievable physical feat to a life of hard labor starting at age 10, when he started working full time in a West African mine. Ngannou constantly fended off gangs looking to recruit him, and saved every penny he could for a better life.
At age 26, Ngannou flew to Paris to become a professional boxer. His funds exhausted from the trip, Francis slept in a park and wandered the city until he met coach Fernand Lopez, who introduced him to MMA, trained Francis for free and allowed him to sleep at the gym.
Today, the heavyweight UFC champ runs an MMA and boxing gym in Cameroon for at-risk youth. He currently resides in Las Vegas.
If you’re in Sin City and happen to anger Ngannou, the science says you’re better off jumping into traffic and being struck by a small SUV than getting punched by him…just something to keep in mind.*
Until the next one,
-sth
*This is not actual medical advice, dummy. Please try to avoid BOTH pedestrian traffic accidents and being hit by professional fighters in equal measure.