Five Elections to Watch Today (The Five for 11/08/22)
Hey,
It’s midterm election day.
Here are the races worth paying attention to as the results come in.
[one]
The Pennsylvania Senate is a weird one.
In the beginning, current Lt. Gov. John Fetterman was crushing reality star Dr. Oz (who’s lived most of his life in New Jersey), who Fetterman managed to brand as a Hollywood insider (apparently Appalachian Democrats hate Hollywood as much as their Conservative brethren).
Then, in May, Fetterman suffered a stroke.
The pair’s only debate was disastrous for Fetterman, who opened with “Hello, and goodnight everybody.”
Later, Fetterman said “I do support fracking. I don’t. I do support fracking.”
Fetterman’s team attempted to paint Oz as a bully for hammering hard in a debate where Fetterman couldn’t speak coherently, due to his stroke….but even Politico wasn’t buying it:
It’s obvious that Rep. DAN CRENSHAW is sightless in one eye or that Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH lost her legs. Nobody questions whether those injuries have an impact on their ability to serve in Congress.
But Fetterman’s disability is different. It prevents him from performing adequately in a candidate ritual — the campaign debate — that has long been associated, correctly or not, with electability and effectiveness in Congress. The plain fact is that Fetterman was not capable of debating Oz. He could have skipped the debate, as some Democrats suggested he should have after it was over, but the Fetterman campaign gambled that the media would educate voters about his auditory issues and then referee any attacks on him with charges of ableism.
It’s not that there’s much love for Dr. Oz, or that the daytime talk TV star has even run a good campaign…but he can stand there and string together three or four sentences in a row.
And Fetterman can’t.
Pennsylvania was won by Biden in 2020, which means white, blue collar voters certainly can break towards the Democratic Party.
But not for a guy who says he’s for…and against…fracking in the SAME SENTENCE during a live debate.
Unless something truly insane happens today, by not forcing Fetterman to step down earlier in the year, the Democrats served up this Senate seat on a sliver platter to Republicans.
UPDATE: Fetterman is already suing over the results of the election, for incomplete ballots to be canceled.
[two]
Just when you think you’ve scraped the bottom of the barrel in the Georgia Senate race…things get a little dumber.
On one side is Raphael Warnock, a member of the far-left (and mostly Anti-Semitic) “Squad,” which features AOC in the gangleader position. Warnock, who claims to be the candidate of the working person and downtrodden, was evicting poor residents from their homes during COVID. (Walker’s campaign paid the back rents, so the residents could stay).
On the other side of the ticket is former football star, Heisman Trophy winner and hometown boy Herhell Walker, who is…very stupid.
Ok, to be fair, Walker could just be really bad in front of crowds, but he also made a false claim to be an FBI agent. uhhhh…wut?
He’s also the “pro-life, pro-family” candidate who didn’t raise any of his own kids and may have paid for two abortions.
These both seem to be pretty terrible individuals.
[three]
The Arizona governor’s race is worth watching, because candidate Kari Lake may be Trump’s VP pick in 2024, if he secures the nomination.
She is more likely than not to win her race for governor of Arizona, and then would have to be considered the favorite to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick should he win the Republican nomination again in 2024.
When Lake narrowly won the Republican gubernatorial nomination two months ago, it seemed the Arizona GOP had consigned itself to electoral oblivion. Lake is a “Stop the Steal” die-hard and political novice who, one assumed (certainly, I did), would suffer the fate of another Trump-endorsed true believer, the Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee, Doug Mastriano, who consistently trails his opponent by about 10 points.
To the contrary, Lake has been a surprise. At the same time, she’s a reminder of the oldest of conventional political adages — candidate quality matters.
Lake, a former newscaster in Phoenix, shares a certain Trump-ian quality in front of the camera. Expect to see her on the national stage quite soon.
[four]
The Governor’s seats in reliably deep blue states New York and Oregon may flip Republican, due in large part to issues around crime and education (such as school closures during COVID).
The short-term story of the 2022 midterms is control of Congress.
But it's not hard to imagine the cycle being remembered for statewide races with consequences that could be felt sooner rather than later, amid fallout from Tuesday and well in advance of 2024.
The parade of prominent Democrats rushing to save Gov. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., speaks to one level of the stakes. Democrats are worried about revealing resonant vulnerabilities in blue states including New York and Oregon, in the same cycle that Republicans could lose ground in red Kansas and Oklahoma.
Governors, of course, are now on the front lines of battles over abortion rights and election administration. It's in the battlegrounds that things could get interesting -- and dicey, with questions being raised about whether or not candidates would respect election results, and what they might do as governors.
[five]
Finally, the Florida Governor’s race is key…not because it’s contested (Ron DeSantis will win re-election in a landslide), but because how former President Trump reacts will be key going into 2024.
This week, Trump referred to DeSantis as “Ron DeSanctimonius,” which is…not one of Trump’s better nicknames. But it signals Trump is worried about DeSantis’ current level of popularity threatening his own.
If the rumors are true, Trump will declare his 2024 candidacy on November 15th.
DeSantis is the only real competition standing in his way for another term.
The former allies could turn rivals real quick here, and Trump’s reaction to DeSantis’ victory may tell us a lot.
Until the next one,
-sth