VP Pick Tim Walz Brings Liabilities, Could Trump/Kamala Tie? "Pallets of Cash" Handed to Taliban, Iran Attacks U.S. Base in Iraq, According to Sources on the Ground (The Five for 08/06/24)
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One quick note before we dive in. Missouri’s primary is today, and my colleague, James P. O’Brien (Twitter, Substack) looked at the polling numbers…and why deep social analytics are better predictors of election outcomes.
You can check out the video if you’ve got time for in-depth analysis, or just click here to see our prediction on “Squad” member Cori Bush vs. Wesley Bell, one of the most expensive and high profile Congressional races of 2024.
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Kamala has chosen. After allegedly “brutal infighting,” Harris has picked Tim Walz of Minnesota over Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
Here’s what Forbes is saying about Walz:
While not at the forefront of national politics, Walz established himself as a moderate Democrat in Congress—where he served as a representative for Minnesota from 2007 to 2019—and as the governor of Minnesota, a role he’s held since 2019, where he also serves as chair of the national Democratic Governors Association.
Walz is seen as an appealing option for independents and moderate Democrats as a working-class politician with a rural background, who exudes the appearance of “someone with a lived experience that is so comparable to so many of the people in rural America,” former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., told The New York Times last week.
Democratic insiders are again saying the quiet part out loud, albeit in a softer voice…Shapiro was almost certainly a better pick and from a more strategic state (Harris is going to win Minnesota unless things really go to hell, Pennsylvania is up for grabs), an uncomfortable number of Dems agree with a certain failed Austrian painter when it comes to the folks in tiny hats:
If you’re keeping score at home, that’s the same sentiment that caused my wife’s Jewish ancestors to flee Russia cira 1900.
A VP pick is a tricky thing, as much of a liability as an asset, in any race.
What are Walz’s liabilities that he just brought to the Harris campaign? That will be unpacked in the coming days and weeks…but Charlie Kirk posted to X with a first crack at it:
Welcome to the race, Tim Walz!
Let’s make sure America knows who you are. You helped ignite the George Floyd riots, the worst the country had seen in decades. While Minneapolis burned, you stalled on deploying the National Guard for an entire day, blaming the city for not submitting the right paperwork.
You let your daughter leak the Guard's deployment plans online, so that rioters would know how long they had to loot the city with impunity. Minneapolis is a war zone because of you. Just days after the attempted murder of Donald Trump, you called him and his supporters "fascists," egging on the same rhetoric that led to him being shot in the first place.
You have overseen some of the most radical youth trans surgery laws in the country. Under your leadership teenagers can get their breast chopped off and get sterilized, and your government calls it “healthcare.”
You have the most radical abortion laws in the country. Zero limits. Every year 5-6 babies are BORN ALIVE and then murdered “legally” under laws you support.
On immigration, you famously said you wanted to provide a “ladder” so invaders can come over Trump’s wall. You are a radical open border zealot.
You oversaw the single worst fraud of the Covid era, the Feeding Our Future case. Thanks to ineptitude at your Department of Education, criminals stole $250 million of taxpayer dollars to spend on luxury cars, houses, and vacations. Also during Covid, you approved $500 million in "hero pay" for frontline workers, only to have 40% of that money go to people who were ineligible or, in many cases, literally deceased.
We’ll see in the days and weeks how much those aspects of Walz stick to Kamala’s poll numbers…or don’t.
UPDATE: Antisemitism seems to be a theme of the 2024 election, tragically. From less than three miles from my house:
[two]
According to FiveThirtyEight, if the election were held today, Trump and Kamala would TIE. And what if that’s the result in November?
Well, it’s complicated, according to Yahoo.
Could a tie actually happen this year?
Yes. While a tie is not a likely outcome, it is something to be ready for. Here is one plausible scenario for the 2024 election:
If Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which President Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there’s a tie, 269-269.
The website 270 to Win also has more tied-election scenarios.
Unlike every other state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. Those individual, competitive electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska become hugely consequential in potential tie scenarios.
Make your own 269-269 scenario with CNN’s interactive election map.
What happens if there’s a tie?
If there’s a 269-269 tie, or if a third party or independent candidate wins electoral votes and keeps a candidate from reaching an Electoral College majority of 270, the next step is the same. It’s called a “contingent election.”
According to the 12th Amendment, enacted in the wake of that divisive 1800 election, if no candidate gets a majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
So, there’s actually a timeline where Trump is the President and Kamala is his forced VP, or vice versa.
Bad for the country, but pretty great fodder for independent journalists and commentators…
[three]
Amidst all of the chaos of Trump being shot, Biden stepping down and Harris becoming the presumptive nominee…the fact that Biden is proposing major changes to the Supreme Court has been largely glossed over.
The two big points are:
A). 18 year term limits on the court.
B). A new justice every two years.
Concerning B…uhhh wut? It’s unclear exactly what Dark Brandon (as he’s called by the Gen-Z influencers a PAC made to make the nearly Octogenarian cool) is up to here…but that would mean that in my lifetime the court could swell to SIXTY members.
Now, one Justice is speaking up.
Justice Neil Gorsuch is pushing back against President Joe Biden’s recent proposals to restructure the Supreme Court.
“I just say: Be careful,” Gorsuch warned in an interview that aired on “Fox News Sunday.”
Less than a week after Biden announced he was reversing course and supporting 18-year term limits for justices and legislation to create a binding ethics code for the high court, the first of President Donald Trump’s three Supreme Court appointees encouraged Americans to think long and hard before taking steps that might undermine the independence of the judicial system.
“The independent judiciary … What does it mean to you as an American?” Gorsuch asked about Biden’s new plan during an interview linked to a new book Gorsuch is releasing this week. “It means that when you’re unpopular, you can get a fair hearing.”
“If you’re in the majority, you don’t need judges and juries, to hear you, to protect your rights, if you’re popular,” Gorsuch continued. “It’s there for the moments when the spotlight’s on you — when the government’s coming after you. And don’t you want a ferociously independent judge and a jury of your peers to make those decisions?”
This legislation is (probably) DOA, and an attempt by Biden to cement his legacy around something other than rampant inflation, the fall of Afghanistan or the world inching closer to a third world war.
He probably should have picked something more doable.
[four]
Your tax dollars are going to the terrorists your tax dollars funded a war against for two decades.
The New York Post reports:
Frustration and outrage are mounting among a bevy of prominent veterans over a report detailing how US currency is flowing into Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and propping up the regime that American soldiers fought against for decades.
Late last month, a government watchdog organization on Afghanistan released a report concluding that since December 2021, the United Nations alongside a constellation of other groups has helped funnel some $3.8 billion worth of US currency into the Taliban-led nation.
At times, this includes the UN literally flying US cash into Afghanistan through transportation firms, per the report.
Apparently $18.6 billion in military equipment wasn’t enough, they need pallets of cash too.
[five]
According to sources on the ground, Iran shot rockets directly at an American military base in Iraq.
In a developing situation, U.S. forces stationed at Iraq's Al-Asad airbase came under attack on Monday, resulting in injuries to several American personnel, Reuters reported. The incident marks the latest in a series of assaults targeting U.S. interests in the region.
According to U.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity to Reuters, the attack is believed to have involved rockets.
In a statement from the U.S. Department of Defense, Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant agreed that today's Iran-aligned militia attack on U.S. forces stationed at Al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq marked a dangerous escalation and demonstrated Iran's destabilizing role in the region. Secretary Austin provided an update on measures to strengthen U.S. military posture in the region in light of this escalating situation.
Security sources in Iraq reported that two Katyusha rockets were fired at the base. The Al-Asad airbase, located in western Iraq's Anbar province, houses American troops and other international forces.
The U.S. was already moving pieces around the board before this attack, according to ABC News:
The Pentagon will send an additional fighter squadron and more warships to the Middle East to help defend Israel should Iran react militarily to this week's assassination of Hamas' top political leader in Tehran that Iran has blamed on Israel.
The United States will also maintain an aircraft carrier presence in the Middle East as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt that was on a short-term deployment to the Middle East.
Well, that sure looks like a possible precursor to a full scale war.
Until the next one,
-sth